In the final days of 2025, China quietly filed paperwork that sent shockwaves through the global space industry. Applications submitted to the International Telecommunication Union revealed plans for 14 satellite constellations totaling more than 203,000 satellites – a figure that dwarfs SpaceX’s Starlink and every other megaconstellation combined.
The move represents far more than technical bureaucracy. It’s a strategic play in what’s becoming a winner-takes-all competition for orbital real estate, and China just staked the largest claim in space history.
The Numbers Game
To understand the audacity of this filing, consider the math. Low Earth orbit can theoretically accommodate around 60,000 satellites before things get dangerously crowded. China’s application claims more than three times that capacity. Currently, only about 10,800 satellites occupy LEO globally, with the United States controlling roughly 76% and China holding just 9%.
The bulk of China’s filing centers on two massive constellations: CTC-1 and CTC-2, each comprising 96,714 satellites across 3,660 orbital planes. Together, these twin systems account for over 95% of the total application. Both were filed by the Institute of Radio Spectrum Utilization and Technological Innovation, an entity registered in Xiong’an New Area on December 30 – the day after it submitted the ITU applications.
That timing wasn’t coincidental. The Radio Innovation Institute represents a new hybrid structure combining government agencies, including the National Radio Monitoring Center and Hebei Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology, with China Satellite Network Group, universities, and state-owned enterprises. Its creation signals Beijing’s recognition that satellite internet has evolved from commercial opportunity to critical national infrastructure.
The Starlink Problem
SpaceX’s Starlink constellation looms large over China’s ambitions. With over 7,000 operational satellites and growing, Starlink has effectively colonized significant portions of prime orbital territory. The American company initially filed for around 12,000 satellites before expanding to roughly 42,000 in subsequent applications.
More importantly, SpaceX’s operational tempo is staggering. Rapid reusable rocket launches enable deployment at a pace China currently cannot match. The Falcon 9 launches every few days, carrying dozens of satellites each time, and the booster lands itself for reuse. China watched this capability gap widen for years while developing its own programs.
Beijing has publicly complained about near-misses between Starlink satellites and its space station. But the real concern isn’t collision risk – it’s being permanently shut out of premium orbital positions unless it acts decisively. Hence the massive ITU filing.
Reality Check: The Deployment Gap
Here’s where ambition meets physics. China set a national record with 92 orbital launches in 2025. That’s impressive growth, but nowhere near what would be required to deploy 203,000 satellites within the ITU’s 14-year timeline.
Consider the current state of China’s two major constellations. Guowang, the state-backed network targeting 13,000 satellites, had exceeded 113 satellites in orbit by December 2025. Qianfan (Thousand Sails), backed by Shanghai’s municipal government and aiming for 15,000 satellites, has faced significant technical hurdles.
After launching several batches of 18 satellites each in late 2024 and early 2025, Qianfan experienced a six-month deployment pause. Multiple satellites drifted from their targeted orbital planes, failed to reach operational altitude, and ground-based telescopes revealed some were tumbling uncontrollably. The problems likely stemmed from electric propulsion thruster failures or gyroscope malfunctions.
Launches resumed in October 2025, suggesting engineers had addressed at least some issues. Testing in Hong Kong’s Victoria Harbour demonstrated smooth HD video streaming with latency around 60-70 milliseconds – proof the concept works when the hardware cooperates.
But here’s the challenge: even maintaining the 2025 launch pace, Chinese rockets almost certainly lack capacity to lift 200,000 satellites into orbit over the next 14 years. The country is developing reusable launch vehicles to address this bottleneck, but creating Falcon 9 competitors remains a significant engineering challenge.
Without reusable rockets, the economics simply don’t work. Each launch costs tens of millions of dollars and can only carry dozens of satellites. SpaceX’s ability to reuse boosters multiple times fundamentally changed the deployment equation. China needs to match that capability or scale back ambitions dramatically.
Paper Satellites or Strategic Vision?
The ITU’s regulatory framework has long struggled with “paper satellites” – filings made primarily to warehouse orbital slots rather than deploy actual hardware. The organization operates on a first-come, first-served principle, meaning earlier filings gain priority rights. China’s massive application is essentially a reservation system for space.
Under ITU rules, operators must launch the first satellite within seven years of application and complete deployment within the following seven years. They must also hit milestones: 10% of satellites within two years, 50% within five years. Fail to meet these targets, and spectrum rights get proportionally reduced.
But for a nation like China with long-term strategic horizons, securing priority dates for constellations that may not fly for a decade makes perfect sense. Yang Feng, founder and CEO of commercial satellite company Spacety, characterized the 203,000 satellite applications as reflecting long-term national strategy rather than immediate capability.
The filings elevate satellite internet from commercial venture to government infrastructure priority, with nationwide coordination involving multiple parties. Whether China can actually build and launch all these satellites is almost beside the point – the applications prevent competitors from claiming the same orbital resources.
Market Chaos and Bubble Warnings
The announcement triggered dramatic swings in Chinese commercial space stocks. On the first trading day after news broke, several companies hit the daily 10% price increase limit. By the following day, the sector swung from gains to losses, with multiple stocks falling more than 10%.
This volatility reflects investor uncertainty about execution and returns. Some analysts draw parallels to past technology bubbles where massive infrastructure investments preceded actual demand. Others argue the buildout addresses genuine needs, pointing to government backing as evidence this isn’t purely speculative.
The truth likely falls somewhere between. Satellite internet will matter – the question is how quickly adoption occurs and whether China can overcome manufacturing and launch constraints before burning through capital.
Geopolitical Implications
The filing guarantees international scrutiny. The United States Federal Communications Commission approved SpaceX’s next-generation constellation in early January 2026, authorizing 7,500 additional Gen 2 Starlink satellites. That approval came shortly after China’s filing – no coincidence there either.
Countries along China’s Belt and Road Initiative may see these constellations as offering connectivity alternatives to Western systems. Chinese-controlled satellite internet could provide both commercial services and strategic communications across regions where Beijing seeks influence.
From a security perspective, dual-use capabilities embedded in these constellations – positioning, navigation, imaging, signals intelligence – have strategic implications. The systems aren’t solely about consumer broadband. They’re about establishing comprehensive space infrastructure supporting both civilian and military applications.
The Sustainability Question
The rush to deploy megaconstellations raises serious concerns about orbital sustainability. Low Earth orbit is already becoming congested. The Qianfan constellation itself contributed to the debris problem when a Long March 6A upper stage broke apart in August 2024, creating over 300 pieces of trackable debris.
As orbital traffic increases, so do collision risks, tracking requirements, and deorbiting obligations. International frameworks for space traffic management remain underdeveloped relative to deployment pace. Without stronger coordination and binding sustainability standards, this rush could create long-term hazards for all space operations.
What Happens Next
Near-term focus will remain on deploying Guowang and Qianfan – projects that alone represent massive undertakings requiring years of sustained effort. Success depends on developing reusable launch vehicles, scaling satellite manufacturing to industrial levels, addressing reliability issues, and building ground infrastructure.
The 203,000 satellite filing stands as a statement of intent. China intends to compete at the highest levels of space infrastructure, regardless of current capability gaps. Whether it can transform those paper satellites into operational constellations will determine not just the future of global internet access, but the balance of power in space for decades to come.
The orbital land rush is accelerating. China just staked one of the largest claims in history. Now comes the hard part: actually building it.
